The model will move away from the use of municipal census data to a single province-wide formula to determine population throughout the province
As part of Budget 2019, the Government of Alberta committed to transitioning from its current municipal population estimate model, which allows municipalities to use municipal census data, to a uniform, provincially-coordinated, estimate model for all municipalities. Click here for a high-level overview of the transition.
The model is intended to support a consistent province-wide method of measuring municipal population. Municipal populations will be updated annually using a combination of Statistics Canada census data and other data sources such as the following:
- Health register (Alberta Health) – census sub-division
- Health register (Alberta Health) – census sub-division migration
- Driver abstracts (Service Alberta) – census sub-division migration
- Tax reporting (Canada Revenue Agency) – census sub-division migration
- Land titles, municipal boundary changes, postal code location (Service Alberta, Statistics Canada) – census sub-division migration, boundary changes
- Census division annual estimates (Statistics Canada) – population, birth, deaths, and migration
The Government of Alberta has indicated that the combination of data sets will allow for a high level of accuracy in determining annual population changes, that the model will be refined as historical information is gathered, and different data sets may be added and removed to the model based on their availability.
To view a Government of Alberta presentation that provides a detailed overview of the model, click here.
It should be noted that although censuses will no longer be accepted as a formal measure of municipal population, municipalities may continue to conduct census for internal purposes, and the information will be accepted by the Government of Alberta for the purpose of validating their own population estimates.
The new estimates are expected to be completed in time for the 2021 provincial budget and fiscal year and will likely be shared with municipalities in early 2021. RMA has indicated that for municipal budgeting purposes, these figures would be required prior to the subsequent municipal fiscal year (e.g. late 2020 for the 2021 fiscal year). The Government of Alberta accepted this feedback but is currently noncommittal as to when the figures will be available to municipalities.
Although there is no formal consultation taking place on the development of the new municipal population estimate model, questions and comments can be directed to:
Jennifer Hansen
Manager, Demography
Alberta Treasury Board and Finance
Email: Jennifer.Hansen@gov.ab.ca
Phone: 780.427.8811
Ryan Mazan
Chief Statistician/Director
Alberta Treasury Board and Finance
Email: Ryan.Mazan@gov.ab.ca
Phone: 780.643.1074
For enquiries, please contact:
Wyatt Skovron
Senior Policy Advisor
wyatt@RMAlberta.com
Tasha Blumenthal
Director of External Relations & Advocacy
tasha@RMAlberta.com